A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
