Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
